I narrowed this down to one particular contribution page. Others were working as expected. I don't know what the problem was, but I worked around it by simply creating a replacement for that contribution page. Thanks to everyone who gave this some thought.
Welcome to SE CiviCRM, Your request can be done via smart group as a work around to avoid 10 step process you can implement an extension that would calculate the recipients based on 'Re-use' mailing link or a drop down of previous mailing lists