The drop-down shows 100 active events but does not filter by 'upcoming'.
As a quick-fix, edit the file administrator/components/com_civicrm/civicrm/joomla/site/elements/civievents.php
Look for the line that reads 'rowCount' => 100,
(line 62) and add a new line after that reads:
'start_date' => array('>' => 'today'),
Save that and try again.
I'll also create a PR.Issue: https://lab.civicrm.org/dev/joomla/issues/1
PR: https://github.com/civicrm/civicrm-joomla/pull/46